TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read triggered cleanly — the zone was reached, the 1H close below 0.4240 confirmed at 04:00 UTC on the 13th, and Target 1 at 0.3985 was reached. Invalidation at 0.4440 was also touched during that spike, but the confirmation fired before the spike and the target printed regardless. That read is complete. What I'm looking at now is price at 0.4012, sitting just above a dense liquidation cluster at 0.3975, with the full EMA stack (9, 20, 50, 200) stacked bearishly above — 0.4086, 0.4136, 0.4178, 0.4219 in that order — all declining and pressing down. The daily trend is down, every prior rally into the EMA stack has been sold, and I haven't seen a single higher low form since the spike reversal. I'm not chasing this at 0.4012 with the 0.3975 cluster right beneath me — that cluster is a magnet but also a natural pause, and entering here gives me almost nothing before the first real obstacle below.
The setup I want is a rally back into the declining EMA cluster, then a rejection close. I'm waiting for that, not pressing into the floor.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.4136
On a rally to the 0.4136–0.4178 zone (EMA 20/50 confluence, declining resistance), a 1H close back below 0.4100 confirms the rejection.
Invalidation
0.4289
1H close above 0.4289 — that reclaims the dense liquidation cluster above and breaks the lower-high sequence.
Target 1
0.3975
(dense liquidation cluster directly below, structural magnet).
Target 2
0.3824
(next dense cluster below, aligns with the deeper flush structure visible from the November low).
Risk/Reward
(0.4100 − 0.3975) / (0.4289 − 0.4100) = 0.0125 / 0.0189 ≈ 0.7:1 to T1 — thin to T1 alone, but to T2: (0.4100 − 0.3824) / (0.4289 − 0.4100) = 0.0276 / 0.0189 ≈ 1.5:1
Resistance: 0.4136–0.4178 (EMA 20/50 cluster, declining) / 0.4289 (dense liquidation cluster)
Support: 0.3975 (dense liquidation cluster) / 0.3824 (dense cluster, deeper flush target)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.