TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND

The November 8 short triggered correctly — the confirmation close at 0.4201 on the 6th-hour candle fired, Target 1 at 0.3980 was reached, and then price reversed hard back through the 0.4344 invalidation level, stopping the read out. That reclaim through 0.4344 is structurally significant: it broke the lower-high sequence and put price back above the EMA 9/20/50 cluster, which is now bunched tightly around 0.4261–0.4287. The daily trend is still down, so this bounce is a counter-trend move until proven otherwise, but I need to be honest about what the chart is showing — price has cleared the EMA 200 on the 1H at 0.4358, reached a high of 0.4374, and is sitting just below it now at 0.4293.

My read here is short, but only on a failed retest of the EMA 200 zone. The EMA 200 at 0.4358 is declining and acted as resistance on the chart visible — the candles that reached 0.4374 were rejected there. If price rallies back into that 0.4344–0.4374 zone and fails to hold above it on a 1H close, that's the rejection I'm waiting for. A fresh short from that zone aligns with the daily downtrend, gives me a clean lower-high confirmation, and puts the dense liquidation cluster at 0.4268 immediately below as a first magnet. The funding rate is negative — shorts are paying longs — meaning the market is leaning short already, which makes a squeeze into the EMA 200 zone credible before the next leg down. I'm not chasing this bounce higher; I'm letting it run into supply and then fading the rejection.