TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read did exactly what the structure called for — triggered at 0.4480, hit Target 1 at 0.4274, and price continued flushing to a low of 0.4093 before bouncing. The invalidation at 0.4652 was eventually reached on that bounce, so that read is closed out. Now price is sitting at 0.4579, having recovered from the 0.4093 low, and I need to decide what this bounce is — a reentry opportunity on the short side, or the start of something bigger. The daily trend is sideways, the broader structure since October is a sequence of lower highs from 0.75 all the way down, and this current bounce is printing right into the zone where my last short confirmed. That tells me sellers are still in control until proven otherwise.
The liquidation map is what sharpens this for me. Dense clusters above at 0.4646 and 0.4950 — price is grinding up into the first of those right now. Below, dense clusters at 0.4324, 0.4180, and 0.4055 form a staircase of stop-hunt magnets that the market already visited once. Funding is mildly positive at 0.0100% per 8h, meaning longs are paying — not an extreme, but it confirms the bounce is being bought by retail, which is exactly the setup I want on the short side. I'm watching for price to push into the 0.4646 dense cluster, then reject back below 0.4580 on a 1H close to confirm the lower-high sequence is intact.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.4620
On a rally into the 0.4620–0.4646 zone (dense liquidation cluster above, natural stop-hunt target), a 1H close back below 0.4580 confirms the rejection and that this bounce is a lower high.
Invalidation
0.4711
1H close above 0.4711 — that clears the first dense cluster above and matches the high since my last read, breaking the lower-high sequence meaningfully.
Target 1
0.4324
(dense liquidation cluster below — first magnet and highest-probability pause on a renewed leg down).
Target 2
0.4180
(next dense cluster below, aligns with the deeper flush structure).
Risk/Reward
(0.4580 − 0.4324) / (0.4711 − 0.4580) = 0.0256 / 0.0131 = 2.0:1
Resistance: 0.4646 / 0.4950
Support: 0.4324 / 0.4180
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.