TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND

The previous short triggered cleanly — confirmation fired at 0.4291, Target 1 at 0.4029 reached, invalidation at 0.4440 also reached on that spike to 0.48 before price collapsed back down. That spike is the dominant event on this chart: a vertical wick to near 0.48 followed by an immediate full reversal, now sitting back at 0.4176 with the EMA 9 at 0.4119 and EMA 20 at 0.4129 just below. The daily trend is down, lower highs and lower lows remain intact, and that spike looks like a stop-hunt through the dense cluster at 0.4506 — not a structural breakout. Price has since pulled back hard and is now hovering just above the EMA 50 at 0.4187, with the EMA 200 at 0.4289 acting as the ceiling above. The structure favors continuation lower: I'm looking for a rally back into the EMA 200 zone as the entry trigger, not a chase from here.