TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both targets from the November 5 short read were reached — 0.4324 and 0.4180 both traded — so that thesis is complete. The confirmation zone never triggered; the structure did the work regardless. Starting clean.

Every MA is stacked above price in full bear order — EMA 9 at 0.4217, EMA 20 at 0.4265, EMA 50 at 0.4318, EMA 200 at 0.4344 — all declining. The daily trend is down with lower highs and lower lows confirmed. The November 7 rollover off 0.44 is a clean lower high, and price has walked down through the entire MA stack since. The structure is unambiguously bearish. I'm not chasing the current flush — price is already stretched below all four MAs. I want a bounce back into the MA cluster, then a rejection. The dense cluster at 0.4266 is the first stop-hunt target on any bounce; the EMA 9 at 0.4217 is the first MA price would need to reclaim and then lose. A rally into that zone followed by a 1H close back below 0.4217 is the signal I'm watching.

Now the arithmetic: confirmation at 0.4217, invalidation at 0.4344 — that is 0.0127 of risk. The 1.2 minimum requires the target to sit at least 0.0152 below 0.4217, meaning 0.4065 or lower. The dense cluster at 0.4113 is only 0.0104 away — it does not clear the minimum, so it becomes a waypoint, named here and not set as Target 1. The dense cluster at 0.3980 sits 0.0237 below confirmation — that is 1.87 times the risk, clearing the minimum comfortably. That is Target 1. Target 2 is the swing low visible on the left side of this chart near 0.3900, which aligns structurally with the next logical extension. Funding is longs paying at 0.0100% per 8h — the crowded side is long, and that asymmetry supports the short.