AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

The prior short from my last read triggered clean — the 8.62–8.70 zone was reached, the 1H close back below confirmed the rejection, Target 1 at 8.22 was hit, and the setup was subsequently stopped out above 8.86 when price spiked to 9.16. That stop-out is real and I'm starting clean from it. Price is now back at 8.256, sitting just above a cluster of dense liquidation levels below (8.09, 7.96, 7.77) and below a dense cluster at 8.68 above. The daily trend is unambiguously down — lower highs, lower lows, the full sequence still intact — and the news context adds nothing constructive: AVAX is 22% lower over the past month with no catalysts in view. Funding is slightly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs, which tells me the crowded side is short and a squeeze toward 8.68 is entirely plausible before the trend reasserts.

The stop-out came from a move to 9.16, but price has since rolled back below 8.86 and is trading at 8.256 — structurally, that spike looks like a stop hunt through the liquidation cluster at 8.68 and 8.86 rather than a genuine reversal, since price failed to hold above either level and has since collapsed back into the range. That said, the re-entry rule is clear: I cannot short again until price makes a fresh structural break below the low that preceded the bounce. The low before the 9.16 spike was approximately 8.084 — I need a 1H close below that level before I can treat the downtrend as resumed on this timeframe. Until then, the honest read is that I'm waiting, not trading.

The setup that would bring me back into this is a rally into the 8.62–8.68 zone (the dense liquidation cluster above and the nearest overhead resistance visible on the chart), followed by a 1H close back below 8.55, confirming the rejection is on. That re-entries the downtrend with the daily trend behind it, keeps the stop tight above the 8.86 cluster, and targets the dense clusters below in sequence.