AVAX · 1H · UPTREND

Price launched off the 9.34 flush low and has reclaimed the EMA 200 at 10.25 — the first time it's traded above that level since the early-October selloff. All four MAs are compressing and curling up together with price above them, a clean bullish stack forming after a deep reset. The daily trend is up, funding is light at 0.0100% per 8h with no crowded positioning to squeeze against, and the structural base is the 9.34 low.

I'm not chasing the current price at 10.37. The move from 9.34 is already +10.9% and an entry mid-range gives me nothing. I'm waiting for a close above 10.55 — the left-side resistance zone that capped multiple bounces after the Oct 12 drop. From that confirmation, the invalidation sits at 9.95 (where the rising EMA cluster lives and the 10.16 liquidation cluster would be cleanly breached below). The distance from confirmation to invalidation is 10.55 − 9.95 = 0.60. Target 1 at 1.2x minimum needs to sit at least 0.72 above confirmation, which means 11.27 minimum. The dense cluster at 10.94 is only 0.39 away — it's a waypoint, not a target. Target 1 is 11.40, the next dense cluster above 10.94 and the prior structural objective from my earlier reads, sitting 0.85 above confirmation. That clears the minimum cleanly.