AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
The long from my last read triggered at 11.25 and was stopped out when price traded through 10.64 — that failure is the starting point here. Price dropped all the way to 9.76 before bouncing hard back to current levels near 10.52, which is a violent recovery but one that's still grinding back through range midpoint. The daily trend is up, so this is a pullback within a larger structure, not a reversal — but the 1H is still showing lower highs since the 12.00 peak, and I need confirmation that the low at 9.76 is the base before I'm putting a long back on. The bounce from 9.76 is sharp and the liquidation clusters at 9.90 and 9.67 were both swept, which is the kind of flush that typically clears weak longs and sets up a recovery leg — but price needs to prove itself above 10.64 before I'm treating this as anything more than a bounce off a stop hunt. 10.87 is a waypoint, not a target — it's the first dense cluster above and will likely cause a pause, but it sits only 0.23 from confirmation while my stop is 0.41 wide, so it doesn't clear the minimum. My real objective is 11.40.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
10.64
Closing above 10.64 on the 1H — reclaiming the prior invalidation level confirms the 9.76 flush was a stop hunt low and the daily uptrend is reasserting; 10.87 is a waypoint where I expect a pause, not where the move ends.
Invalidation
10.23
Close below 10.23 — the liquidation cluster at that level is breached and the bounce structure fails.
Target 1
11.40
Dense liquidation cluster above, the structural objective that clears the minimum R/R requirement.
Target 2
11.82
Next dense cluster above, extended objective if 11.40 clears with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(11.40 − 10.64) / (10.64 − 10.23) = 0.76 / 0.41 = 1.9:1
Resistance: 10.64 (prior invalidation level, trigger) / 10.87 (dense liquidation cluster, waypoint) / 11.40 (dense cluster, Target 1)
Support: 10.23 (liquidation cluster, invalidation) / 9.90 (swept cluster) / 9.76 (swing low on this chart)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.