AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both prior shorts hit all targets — 9.51, 8.92, 8.51, and 8.16 — a clean sequence of completed moves. The news context confirms the same read: the bearish setup played out to 8.90 and extended toward 8.56, with 8.17 flagged as the nearest structural support. That's not a new setup, that's a recap of the move I already caught. Now price has bounced off the 8.30s into the EMA 9/20 cluster (8.43) and is pressing against the EMA 50 at 8.50, currently sitting at 8.53 on a still-forming candle. The daily trend is down, both prior reads confirmed it, and I'm not chasing a long into a declining structure on a 1H bounce that hasn't closed above anything meaningful yet.

The short side is what the structure supports. The EMA 200 at 8.62 and the prior breakdown zone around 8.50–8.55 are the rejection zone I'm watching. Funding is lightly negative — shorts paying longs — which means the crowd leaned short enough to get squeezed into this bounce, but not extreme enough to flip my bias. The liquidation cluster at 8.47 just below current price is a magnet that already got swept on the way up; the next dense cluster above sits at 8.86, which aligns with the EMA 200 and the prior swing high zone. That's my rally target for a rejection setup.