AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read hit both targets — 9.51 and then 8.92 — a clean, completed move. That's the context I'm starting from, and I'm not treating the completed short as a reason to keep pressing lower without a fresh trigger. Price is now at 8.885, below all four declining MAs (EMA 9 at 8.958, EMA 20 at 9.026, EMA 50 at 9.158, EMA 200 at 9.434), making lower highs and lower lows across the entire visible window. The structure is still bearish on this timeframe, but the move already ran into my Target 2 at 8.92 — chasing a continuation short here, after a 35+ point drop, with the nearest dense liquidation cluster sitting at 8.70 just below and another at 8.51, puts me in a difficult spot for entry quality. I'm not shorting into the cluster stack beneath me from current price — the reward doesn't justify the proximity to fuel. What I'm looking for is a relief bounce back into the declining MA cluster before confirming another leg down.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
9.00
On a rally into the 9.00–9.05 zone (EMA 9/20 cluster, currently descending toward that area), a 1H close back below 8.97 confirms the rejection and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
9.27
Price closes above 9.27 — the dense liquidation cluster above is swept and the rejection structure fails.
Target 1
8.51
Dense liquidation cluster below, the next structural magnet in the trade direction (8.70 is a waypoint inside the move).
Target 2
8.16
Next cluster below, extended objective if 8.51 breaks with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(8.97 − 8.51) / (9.27 − 8.97) = 0.46 / 0.30 = 1.5:1
Resistance: 9.00–9.05 (declining EMA 9/20 cluster, rally target for rejection) / 9.27 (dense liquidation cluster, short invalidation)
Support: 8.70 (dense liquidation cluster, waypoint) / 8.51 (dense liquidation cluster, Target 1) / 8.16 (next cluster, Target 2)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.