AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both prior reads completed — long from 10.56 hit both targets at 10.96 and 11.42, and the move since ran all the way to 12.00 before reversing hard. That reversal is what I'm looking at now: price dropped from the 11.75 swing high visible on the right side of this chart, sliced through all four EMAs (9 at 11.17, 20 at 11.25, 50 at 11.23, 200 at 11.13) with the entire MA stack now above price and fanned bearishly, and is sitting at 11.03 with the last closed candle at 11.009. The 1H structure is a sequence of lower highs and lower lows off that 11.75 high — clean downtrend on this timeframe — but the daily trend is still up, so this is a pullback, not a reversal, and I'm treating it that way.

I'm not chasing a short here. Counter-trend against the daily, with price already 0.70 off the high and sitting at the EMA 200 on the 1H — that's a faded move, not a fresh entry. The liquidation cluster at 10.64 is the natural magnet below, and 10.38 sits beneath that, but I need to see the structure hold before committing long. The news backdrop is mildly supportive — Grayscale adding a second custodian and tokenized stock activity on Avalanche — but that's secondary to where price is structurally.

The honest setup here is a long once the pullback finds a base, not a short into spent downside with dense liquidity below acting as a cushion. I'm waiting for a close back above the MA cluster, which has compressed tightly around 11.13–11.25, to confirm the 1H pullback is done and the daily trend is resuming. Funding is a mild long lean at 0.01% per 8h — not extreme, no squeeze risk on either side.