AVAX · 1H · UPTREND
Price ground from the 7.00 floor all the way up to 8.20+ over the past two weeks, and my previous long read — triggered on the close above 7.90 — has now hit Target 1 at 8.30. That move is a completed leg. Price is now pulling back from the 8.20 area, sitting at 7.935, and I need to see whether this is a healthy retest of the breakout zone or the start of something deeper. The structure is still bullish — higher lows from the 7.00 base are intact — but I'm not chasing here after a completed target. The 7.90 level is now the key: that was the confirmation trigger on the last long read, and it's where I expect buyers to defend if this pullback has any integrity.
The dense liquidation cluster at 7.53 is sitting below as the real danger zone — if price loses 7.90 and drops into that cluster, a cascade through 7.53 becomes the dominant risk. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h is long-biased but not extreme, so the squeeze pressure isn't critical yet. Open interest data is thin here, but the directional lean from funding confirms longs are still in control.
My read: I'm letting this pullback resolve before I add. If 7.90 holds on a retest and price closes back above it on the 1H, I'm long again targeting the next liquidation cluster at 8.28 as a waypoint toward 8.82. If 7.90 breaks and price closes below it cleanly, I'm stepping aside and waiting to see if 7.53 acts as a floor — but I'm not buying into a breakdown.
---
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
7.90
Holding and closing above 7.90 on the 1H confirms the prior breakout level is now support and bullish structure is intact.
Invalidation
7.53
Structure invalidated on a close below 7.53 — the dense liquidation cluster below becomes a cascade trigger rather than a floor.
Target 1
8.28
Dense liquidation cluster above, natural next magnet and the high of the current visible range.
Target 2
8.82
Next dense liquidation cluster above, extended structural objective.
Risk/Reward
(8.28 - 7.90) / (7.90 - 7.53) = 0.38 / 0.37 = 1.0:1 — marginal here; I'm sizing down and watching for a cleaner hold before committing full size. The real R/R opens up if entry tightens on a confirmed hold of 7.90 with a tight stop just under 7.85, which improves the ratio meaningfully.
Resistance: 8.28 / 8.82
Support: 7.90 / 7.53
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.