AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price peaked at 8.20+ early September, and the structure since then has been a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows — 8.20, then 7.80, now price is grinding at 7.33 after a fresh leg down that touched 7.20 intraday. My previous long read from Sep 9 confirmed above 7.90 and targeted 8.28 — that move completed and then reversed hard, which means I'm now working from a broken structure, not an extension of the prior bull leg. The Sep 9 scenario has expired into a full trend reversal. Price is currently sitting just above the dense liquidation cluster at 7.19, which is the most important level on this chart right now — that cluster either holds as a floor or triggers a cascade into the 6.91 zone. Funding is negative at -0.0134% per 8h, meaning shorts are paying longs — that crowded short positioning makes a squeeze toward 7.70 statistically plausible, but I'm not chasing it from mid-air. The news context confirms 7.00–7.20 as the technical community's key support region, and the previous downside target of 7.20 has already been reached per the live headlines. I'm watching for one of two things: a clean hold and reclaim of 7.50 that flushes the short crowd, or a decisive break of 7.19 that opens the cascade into 6.91 and 6.65.
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LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
7.50
Closing above 7.50 on the 1H confirms the 7.19 liquidation cluster held as support and price is reclaiming short-term structure — the crowded short side begins to squeeze toward the 7.70 dense cluster above.
Invalidation
7.10
Structure invalidated on a close below 7.10 — the 7.19 cluster failed and the cascade into 6.91 is open.
Target 1
7.70
Dense liquidation cluster above, the most natural magnet for a short squeeze from this level.
Target 2
8.17
Next dense cluster above, extended structural objective if 7.70 is cleared cleanly.
Risk/Reward
(7.70 - 7.50) / (7.50 - 7.10) = 0.20 / 0.40 = 0.5:1 — this does not clear the minimum threshold; the long is a NO SETUP until price retests and holds closer to 7.19 before the close above 7.50, tightening the stop and improving R/R
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
7.50
Rejection at 7.50 with a close back below 7.30 on the 1H confirms the bounce has stalled and the 7.19 cluster is being tested from above — bearish structure intact.
Invalidation
7.70
Structure invalidated on a close above 7.70 — the dense cluster above is swept and the short squeeze thesis overrides.
Target 1
7.19
Dense liquidation cluster immediately below, natural first magnet and the intraday low already tagged once.
Target 2
6.91
Next dense cluster below, cascade objective if 7.19 breaks cleanly; R/R: (7.30 - 6.91) / (7.70 - 7.30) = 0.39 / 0.40 = ~1.0:1 — marginal but the cascade dynamic through 7.19 improves the actual realized move.
Resistance: 7.50 / 7.70
Support: 7.19 / 6.91
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.