AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both targets from the short thesis I've been running since November 11 are done — 7.95 and 7.46 both reached, with price now sitting at 7.14 after a sharp, high-volume flush through the 7.00 psychological level and back. The two-step entry never triggered in the textbook sense — the zone at 8.81–9.01 never traded before price collapsed — but the structural thesis was right: the downtrend continued, both objectives were swept. The setup is complete. I'm starting clean from here.

What I'm looking at now is a market that just printed an aggressive vertical drop to the 6.74 area — the low visible on this chart — with a partial recovery back to 7.14. That low is the reference point everything below hangs on. The liquidation map shows dense clusters above at 7.17, 7.47, and 7.77, which tells me the move down swept through most of the below-price positioning, and the recovery bounce is now running directly into that 7.17 dense cluster overhead. Daily trend is still down, structure is still lower highs and lower lows, and the NYSE tokenization news from the headlines has clearly already been priced in and faded — price is well below where that catalyst spiked it.

There is no clean long setup here. Buying into a dense liquidation cluster at 7.17 immediately above, inside a daily downtrend, after a vertical flush with no base formed, is not a trade I'd take. The bounce from 6.74 looks like relief, not reversal — no higher low sequence has formed, no consolidation base is visible, and the daily structure is unambiguously bearish.

The short side is what I'm watching. Price needs to rally back into supply first before I'd fade it again.