AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short setup I've been publishing for two consecutive reads — rally to 8.62–8.68, rejection close below 8.55 — still hasn't triggered. Price peaked at 8.29 since those reads and never got close to the entry zone. What it has done is make a fresh low at 8.125, which is a new lower low on this chart and keeps the downtrend structure fully intact. Price is now at 8.18, sitting beneath a dense liquidation cluster at 8.03 that is creeping closer. The setup itself hasn't changed, but the compression is tightening — price has barely bounced, and the 8.62 zone feels increasingly distant.
The two-step short is still the cleanest read: I need a rally into the zone first, then the rejection close. But with price grinding lower and the bounce never materialising, I'm also watching whether a direct break below 8.03 sets up a momentum continuation without the rally leg at all. The dominant structure is lower highs, lower lows, every MA stack sloping down, daily trend confirming down — there is no case for a long here.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
8.62
On a rally to the 8.62–8.68 zone, a 1H close back below 8.55 confirms the rejection and re-enters the downtrend.
Invalidation
8.86
Dense liquidation cluster swept, rejection structure fails.
Target 1
8.03
Dense liquidation cluster below, nearest structural magnet in the trade direction.
Target 2
7.79
Next dense cluster below, extended objective if 8.03 breaks with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(8.55 − 8.03) / (8.86 − 8.55) = 0.52 / 0.31 ≈ 1.7:1
Resistance: 8.62–8.68 (dense liquidation cluster, rally target for rejection) / 8.86 (dense cluster, invalidation)
Support: 8.03 (dense liquidation cluster, Target 1) / 7.79 (dense cluster, Target 2)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.