AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
The same short thesis I've been publishing is still the live read — the two-step setup hasn't triggered and the structure behind it is unchanged. Daily trend is down, the NYSE news spike to 9.01 was rejected cleanly, and price has since bled back to 8.63 without ever giving me the entry. The 8.81–9.01 zone still hasn't traded since the confirmation was written, so the trigger is still forward-looking. What's changed slightly is the lower boundary of the range: the low since my last read printed 8.379, which has swept the 8.37 liquidation cluster below — that cluster is now spent, and the next meaningful floor below price is 7.95.
Price is currently grinding in a tight band between 8.37 (swept, now cleared) and 8.71 (dense cluster above). The news catalyst gave AVAX a 12.7% pop on the NYSE tokenized stock settlement deal, but the follow-through failed — price couldn't hold above 9.01, the daily structure never flipped, and the fade has been orderly. That's exactly what a stop-hunt into resistance looks like. I'm not chasing it down from here — mid-range short with a dense cluster at 8.71 just above and the 7.95 target still a full dollar away gives me fine R/R only if I get the proper entry. I'm waiting for the rally back into the zone, then the 1H close below 8.65 to confirm the rejection. Nothing has changed about that plan.
CONTINUATION SCENARIO
Carried forward from
Wed 11 Nov 2026 · SHORT
Confirmation
8.81
Already written — on a rally to the 8.81–9.01 zone, a 1H close back below 8.65 confirms the rejection; zone has NOT yet been reached, so the trigger remains live and forward.
Invalidation
9.15
A close above there means the news catalyst produced a genuine structural reclaim, not a stop-hunt fade.
Target 1
7.95
Dense liquidation cluster below, nearest structural magnet (the 8.37 cluster has been swept and is no longer a material obstacle).
Target 2
7.46
Extended objective if 7.95 breaks.
Confidence
MEDIUM — daily trend is clean, rejection was clean, but price has been compressing below 8.71 for over 24 hours without giving me the rally I need; the longer it coils here, the higher the risk of a direct breakdown rather than a rally-then-reject sequence
Resistance: 8.71 (dense liquidation cluster, first ceiling above price) / 8.81 (lower end of entry zone) / 9.01 (top of news spike, upper end of entry zone) / 9.15 (invalidation)
Support: 7.95 (dense liquidation cluster, Target 1) / 7.46 (Target 2)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.