AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both prior short setups never triggered — price never rallied to the 8.62–8.68 entry zone — but the downtrend did exactly what the structure said it would: both Target 1 at 8.03 and Target 2 at 7.79 were reached on the move down without the entry ever firing. The setup was correct on direction, idle on execution. Price is now at 7.839, the downtrend is fully intact with lower highs and lower lows across the entire window, and I'm looking at the same structure from a lower starting point. The daily trend is down, the 30-minute chart shows a near-vertical drop into the current level, and the question now is whether this is a spot to re-enter short or whether I wait for a bounce first.

The two-step short is still the honest structure here. The drop from 8.20 to 7.77 was fast and vertical — there's a dense liquidation cluster at 7.81 just above the current price that has already been swept, and clusters at 7.45 and 7.33 sitting below as the next magnets. A short from here, mid-air after a sharp leg down, gives me no clean invalidation that isn't right on top of me. I want price to bounce first into a zone I can fade. The 8.03 level — former Target 1, now overhead as a swept cluster — is the first meaningful resistance. Above that sits the 8.19 dense cluster, then 8.51. Any bounce into 8.03–8.19 that then fails and closes back below 8.00 is the rejection I'd short.

Funding is still longs paying shorts at 0.0046% per 8h — not extreme, but longs are still the crowded side even after this flush. That keeps me leaning short on any rally rather than chasing the bounce. The news context shows AVAX down over 22% on the month from an October peak near 11.12 — no fundamental catalyst visible to reverse that trend.