XRP · 1H · DOWNTREND

My previous short scenario from November 13th is running exactly as written. Price never reached the 1.0500–1.0700 entry zone — it never confirmed — but Target 1 at 1.0000 has already been reached and price is now at 0.9823, pressing further into sub-dollar territory. That setup has partially delivered without ever triggering: the structural direction was right, the entry never came. I'm not republishing it as a fresh short from here — price is already 6% below where I'd want to fade a rally, and there's no clean trigger at this level. What I'm watching now is whether the November 13th scenario still has legs toward Target 2 at 0.9576, or whether this sub-1.00 flush is a capitulation that sets up a counter-trend long.

The chart is a clean downtrend from the 1.3400 area in early November to 0.9823 today — a straight staircase of lower highs and lower lows with no meaningful bounce along the way. Daily trend is confirmed down. Derivatives show dense liquidation clusters below at 0.9387, 0.8978, and 0.8859 — price is statistically drawn toward those levels when it loses round-number support. The 1.04 cluster above is the only overhead density, and that's exactly where a dead-cat bounce would stall. A close below 0.9800 on the ongoing candle would be meaningful, but that candle hasn't closed yet — I'm watching the hourly close.

The counter-trend long idea: if price flushes into the 0.9387 cluster and buyers absorb it, there's a reclaim setup worth watching — but the daily trend is down and the higher bar applies. I need an actual reclaim close, not a touch. I'm not calling a bottom at sub-dollar just because it feels extended.