XRP · 1H · DOWNTREND
The November 7th short setup delivered — both Target 1 at 1.1600 and Target 2 at 1.1200 were reached, the entry zone at 1.2000–1.2200 never traded, and price has since extended the collapse to the 1.08–1.09 area. That read is fully completed. What I'm looking at now is a market that has fallen roughly 20% from the November highs in a straight line, funding at -0.0294% per 8h means shorts are paying longs — the crowd is leaning heavily short — and there are dense liquidation clusters sitting just below at 1.06 and 1.04 that act as a magnet and potential fuel for one final flush before any meaningful stabilisation. The daily trend is unambiguously down, so I'm not interested in a long from here with no structural base built. What I want is either a bounce into a supply zone that I can short on a rejection, or confirmation that the flush through 1.06 and 1.04 has exhausted sellers — and neither of those conditions is met right now.
There is no clean entry sitting at the current price of 1.0917. I'm mapping the conditional scenarios — both sides need a specific event before I act.
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.1200
On a rally to the 1.1200–1.1400 zone, a 1H close back below 1.1150 confirms the rejection and bearish continuation toward the lower liquidation clusters.
Invalidation
1.1600
A 1H close above here reclaims the prior Target 1 level with momentum and breaks the sequence of lower highs; the short thesis is void above it.
Target 1
1.0600
Dense liquidation cluster immediately below; first pause zone and high probability of a stop-hunt flush into it.
Target 2
1.0400
Next dense cluster; extended objective if 1.0600 gives way without meaningful buyer response.
Risk/Reward
(1.1150 − 1.0600) / (1.1600 − 1.1150) = 0.0550 / 0.0450 = 1.2:1
Confidence
MEDIUM — daily trend is firmly down and the squeeze in funding sets up a lure-and-trap bounce, but I need price to actually trade into the zone first
LONG (CONDITIONAL — COUNTER-TREND, HIGHER BAR APPLIES) SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.0400
On a flush into the 1.0400–1.0600 zone, a 1H close back above 1.0650 confirms that the liquidation clusters absorbed the sell pressure and buyers have reclaimed structure.
Invalidation
1.0300
A 1H close below here means the clusters were not support and the breakdown accelerates; I do not hold below that level.
Target 1
1.1200
The prior Target 2 level from my last read, now acting as overhead supply; natural first cover zone for a counter-trend bounce.
Target 2
1.1600
The prior Target 1 level; extended objective only if 1.1200 clears with clear momentum.
Risk/Reward
(1.1200 − 1.0650) / (1.0650 − 1.0300) = 0.0550 / 0.0350 = 1.6:1
Confidence
LOW — this is counter-trend against a confirmed daily downtrend; I'd take it only on extreme negative funding persisting through the flush, with a sharp reversal candle closing back above 1.0650 on meaningful volume
Resistance: 1.1150–1.1200 / 1.1600
Support: 1.0600 / 1.0400
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.