XRP · 1H · DOWNTREND

Both targets from my October 24th short — 1.2400 and 1.2100 — were reached. That setup is fully completed. Price has since continued lower, printing a low of 1.2002 before recovering to current 1.2451. The daily structure remains a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and nothing on this 30m/1H window breaks that verdict — but after a flush from roughly 1.3200 down to 1.2000, price is stretched and sitting in a zone that has dense liquidation clusters both immediately below (1.2400, 1.1600, 1.1100) and above (1.3400, 1.3900). I'm not shorting into this spot from the middle of nowhere — the move I had is done, and re-entering at 1.2451 mid-air gives me nothing clean.

Funding is lightly positive (longs paying 0.01% per 8h), which is not extreme enough to force a squeeze but does mean the crowd is still leaning long into a downtrend — that keeps me from wanting to chase a long here. The news context confirms the bigger picture: XRP has shed over 11% since end of September, and speculative buyers have been shaken out on every rally. Rallies in a downtrend are distribution events until proven otherwise.

The setup I want is a two-step: let price bounce into the 1.2860–1.3000 resistance zone — where the rejected lower high sits and where the dense 1.3400 cluster begins to come into view — and then confirm a rejection close. That's the same structural logic that worked on October 24th, reset from a lower base.