UNI · 1H · UPTREND
My previous read from Aug 19 was a SHORT setup looking for rejection at 3.58–3.65 with a close below 3.50 — that scenario never triggered. Instead, price did the opposite: it blew through those resistance clusters, ripped from the low 3.20s all the way to 4.55, and is now sitting at 4.374. The downtrend structure I was tracking is completely invalidated — this is a new uptrend with a clean sequence of higher lows driving from 3.20 to current levels. The structure is bullish, but I'm not chasing it here: funding at 0.1503% per 8h is extreme, longs are dangerously crowded, and there are three dense liquidation clusters stacked directly above between 4.42 and 4.55 — that is a magnet zone, but also a wall that could reverse hard once the fuel is spent. The news context reinforces the bullish backdrop — Uniswap handling $638.5M in tokenized stock volume on Robinhood Chain in 90 days is genuine protocol traction, and that kind of volume narrative supports the move structurally. But I'm not buying extension into crowded positioning. I'm waiting for a flush that brings price back to cleaner structure.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
4.10
Pullback holds above 4.10–4.11, which is the dense liquidation cluster below and the prior consolidation zone from the Aug 20–21 range — a close back above 4.20 after testing that level confirms the higher-low structure is intact and the uptrend continues.
Invalidation
3.92
Structure invalidated below 3.92 — the next dense liquidation cluster below, and losing it signals the squeeze unwind is deeper than a normal retracement.
Target 1
4.48
Dense liquidation cluster directly above, high-probability stall point as that fuel gets swept.
Target 2
4.55
The uppermost dense cluster above, which also aligns with the prior July peak area visible on the far left of the chart.
Risk/Reward
(4.48 − 4.20) / (4.20 − 3.92) = 0.28 / 0.28 = 1.0:1 at Target 1 — marginal. Extended to Target 2: (4.55 − 4.20) / (4.20 − 3.92) = 0.35 / 0.28 = 1.25:1 — barely acceptable, which reflects how extended this move already is. I'm only taking this if the pullback is clean and the 4.10–4.11 cluster holds with a decisive rejection
Resistance: 4.42 (dense liquidation cluster) / 4.48 (dense) / 4.55 (dense)
Support: 4.10–4.11 (dense liquidation cluster / prior consolidation) / 3.92 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.