UNI · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price topped out at 4.60 in late July, rolled into a sequence of lower highs and lower lows that's been intact ever since, and the most recent leg broke sharply through the 3.50 area before snapping back to where we are now — 3.51. The current candle is sitting right in the middle of a mess: below the 3.58–3.65 liquidation cluster zone overhead, and above the 3.39–3.17 cluster stack below. The dominant structure is still bearish — every bounce since the August 1 high has failed to make a new high, and the latest spike from ~3.29 up to 3.56 looks like a stop hunt into that dense 3.58 cluster rather than a genuine reversal. The fee switch burn news is a fundamental tailwind but it hasn't flipped the chart structure — price is still printing a series of failing rallies in a downtrend. I'm not chasing this bounce. My preferred read is that this rip fades at or just below 3.58–3.65, and the structure that matters is whether price holds above 3.39 on the next pullback.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
3.58
Rejection at the 3.58–3.65 dense liquidation cluster with a close back below 3.50 confirms the downtrend continuation — that cluster is where overleveraged longs are stacked and where prior bounces have stalled; a failure there means the stop hunt is done and sellers are back in control.
Invalidation
3.75
Structure invalidated above 3.75 — that is the next dense cluster above and a close through it means the squeeze has genuine follow-through, not just a liquidation flush.
Target 1
3.29
Dense liquidation cluster directly below, high-probability magnet as shorts covering there will stall the move temporarily.
Target 2
3.17
Next dense cluster below, structural low from the most recent capitulation wick, and the full measured target of the August breakdown continuation.
Risk/Reward
(3.50 – 3.29) / (3.75 – 3.50) = 0.21 / 0.25 = 0.8:1 — R/R is marginal at the confirmation level, so I'm sizing small or waiting for a sharper rejection candle closer to 3.65 where the invalidation distance widens
Resistance: 3.58 (dense liquidation cluster) / 3.65 (dense) / 3.75 (invalidation cluster)
Support: 3.39 (dense liquidation cluster) / 3.29 (dense) / 3.17 (dense — structural low)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.