UNI · 1H · SIDEWAYS
Price peaked around 3.880 in early July, sold off hard, then spent the last two weeks chopping between roughly 3.450 and 3.700 before breaking down below that range entirely. Right now at 3.601, I'm looking at a structure that peaked, failed to make a new high, and is now grinding lower with lower highs visible across the July 10–20 stretch. The most recent candles show a sharp bounce off 3.420 back to current price — but that bounce is happening into what used to be range support, now flipped to resistance around 3.620–3.650. I'm reading this as a bearish distribution structure with a dead-cat bounce in progress, and I'm not chasing the bounce — I want to see this level reject and roll over before I commit to anything.
The macro headlines in play are broadly risk-off — equities are seeing pressure, chip stocks dropped, and broader market sentiment has been rattled. That backdrop doesn't favor a sustained UNI recovery, and I'm treating the technical picture as consistent with that tone.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
3.620
Rejection at 3.620–3.650 with a close back below 3.580 confirms bearish structure and that the bounce has failed at flipped resistance.
Invalidation
3.700
Structure invalidated above 3.700 — a clean close there reclaims the prior range and flips my read.
Target 1
3.420
Prior bounce low and clear structural support.
Target 2
3.300
Next significant swing low from the early July consolidation zone.
Risk/Reward
(3.580 - 3.420) / (3.700 - 3.580) = 0.160 / 0.120 = 1.3:1 to T1 / approximately 2.3:1 to T2
Resistance: 3.620–3.650 / 3.700
Support: 3.420 / 3.300
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.