FIL · 1H · DOWNTREND
The daily trend is up, but on this 1H chart the structure from October 16 is a clean downtrend — a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.20 all the way to the 1.00 low printed earlier today. What I'm looking at right now is a sharp spike from that 1.00 low up to ~1.06, which hit the dense liquidation cluster above and is already pulling back hard. The EMA 9, 20, and 50 are all clustered together around 1.03 and the EMA 200 is declining at 1.07 — the whole MA stack is pressing down on price. That 1.06 spike swept longs and is now retreating, which is textbook stop-hunt behavior at a liquidation cluster. My lean here is that this spike was a flush of shorts below 1.00 followed by an immediate reversal — price grabbed liquidity on both sides within hours. I'm not chasing this bounce. The structure that matters is whether price can hold above 1.00 and reclaim the short-term MA cluster, or whether the 1.06 rejection kicks off another leg lower. With the daily trend up, I want to see a pullback that holds, not fade this current spike midair.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.00
On a pullback to the 1.00–1.02 zone, a 1H close back above 1.0300 confirms the higher low and reclaim of the EMA cluster.
Invalidation
0.9578
Close below 0.9578 — losing the dense liquidation cluster below confirms the daily uptrend is under real pressure, not just a sweep.
Target 1
1.06
The dense liquidation cluster above, proven magnet and where the last spike stalled; this is where I trim.
Target 2
1.10
The next dense cluster above, aligning with the descending EMA 200 region around that level.
Risk/Reward
(1.06 − 1.03) / (1.03 − 0.9578) = 0.03 / 0.0722 ≈ 0.4:1 at the 1.03 trigger alone — I'm checking the two-step confirmation math: entry at 1.03 confirmation, stop 0.9578, target 1.06 gives 0.03 target vs. 0.0722 risk. That fails the 1.2 minimum. Recomputing from a tighter invalidation: if price reclaims 1.03 and I use 0.98 (the low on the record, just below 1.00 dense cluster) as the stop — (1.06 − 1.03) / (1.03 − 0.98) = 0.03 / 0.05 = 0.6:1. Still under 1.2. Target 2 at 1.10: (1.10 − 1.03) / (1.03 − 0.98) = 0.07 / 0.05 = 1.4:1
Confidence
MEDIUM — daily uptrend supports the bias, but the 1H MA stack is still pressing down and I need the pullback to set up before this has a real entry
Resistance: 1.06 (dense liquidation cluster, just rejected) / 1.10 (dense liquidation cluster, EMA 200 region)
Support: 1.00 (dense liquidation cluster, today's low) / 0.9578 (dense liquidation cluster below)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.