FIL · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price collapsed from the 0.71–0.72 range in mid-August, flushed hard to lows near 0.60, and has since ripped back vertically to reclaim 0.70 — sitting right at the top of the prior breakdown zone. The structure from July through August is a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and this bounce has put price directly into the overhead supply shelf that capped multiple rallies in the 0.70–0.71 area. The move off the lows is sharp and volume-backed, but it's arrived at exactly the level where I'd expect sellers to re-engage. The dense liquidation cluster at 0.6955 just below has already been swept on the way up — that fuel is spent — and the next dense cluster sits at 0.7282 above, which is the obvious magnet if this bounce has legs. Right now I'm reading this as a bearish retest of broken support-turned-resistance at 0.70–0.71, not a reversal. The funding rate confirms longs are piling in on this rip, which makes the squeeze thesis weaker from here — crowded long into resistance is not where I want to be.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.70
Rejection at the 0.70–0.71 resistance zone with a close back below 0.6955 confirms the bearish retest and structure holds. That dense liquidation cluster at 0.6955 flipping back to resistance tells me the bid has failed.
Invalidation
0.7282
Structure invalidated above 0.7282 — that's the next liquidation cluster and reclaiming it on a close would mean this is no longer a retest, it's a genuine recovery with momentum.
Target 1
0.6506
Dense liquidation cluster and prior reaction low from the flush zone.
Target 2
0.6198
The deepest dense cluster below, corresponding to the spike lows visible on the chart.
Risk/Reward
(0.6955 - 0.6506) / (0.7282 - 0.6955) = 0.0449 / 0.0327 ≈ 1.4:1
Resistance: 0.7100 / 0.7282 (dense liquidation cluster)
Support: 0.6955 (dense cluster, just swept) / 0.6506 (dense cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.