FIL · 1H · UPTREND
My last LONG read from September 8 was stopped out — price closed below 0.8000 and invalidated the structure I was holding. That failure is on the record and I'm starting clean from it. What's happened since is remarkable: price has ripped from the 0.76 area all the way through 0.9000, 0.9400, and is now printing just under 1.0000 — the highest point on this chart — after posting a sharp spike to 1.0400 and pulling back hard. The daily trend is UP, the 30-minute and 1H structure shows a clear sequence of higher lows from the mid-September flush near 0.7600, and the current consolidation near 0.9900 looks like time correction rather than distribution. That said, funding is at an extreme 0.0906% per 8h — longs are massively crowded, and the crowded side is vulnerable. I'm not chasing here: price already made the bulk of the move, and I need a cleaner entry before I reload.
The spike to 1.0400 and flush back to 0.9400 created a local range. Price has since recovered to just under 1.0000, which is both a round-number magnet and the top of visible congestion from the spike zone. The structure is still bullish — the flush low near 0.9400 held and price reclaimed 0.9650, 0.8878 is the dense cluster below, and the daily trend is intact. But with funding this extreme, a squeeze to shake out longs before continuation is the more likely path. I'm waiting for that flush to give me a structural long entry rather than buying into a crowded position at the highs.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.9156
Pullback into the 0.9156 dense liquidation cluster — around 0.9156 — holds with a bullish close back above 0.9350, confirming the higher-low structure is intact after the squeeze.
Invalidation
0.8878
Close below 0.8878 — that dense cluster below is where the cascade would accelerate; losing it on a close flips this to distribution.
Target 1
1.0100
Dense liquidation cluster just above the current price, the first magnet on any fresh leg up.
Target 2
1.0500
Dense cluster above, aligning with the spike high visible on this chart and the natural measured extension of the base from the September lows.
Risk/Reward
(1.0100 − 0.9350) / (0.9350 − 0.8878) = 0.0750 / 0.0472 = 1.6:1
Confidence
MEDIUM — daily trend is firmly up and structure supports continuation, but extreme funding creates a real squeeze risk before the next leg, and I'm building this scenario around that flush happening first
Resistance: 1.0000 / 1.0400 (spike high visible on this chart)
Support: 0.9156 (dense liquidation cluster) / 0.8878 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.