FIL · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price has been grinding lower since mid-July, printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows — from the 0.82 area all the way down to the 0.65 lows. The recent bounce off those lows back to the 0.71 zone is a relief rally into what I see as a well-defined rejection zone around 0.71–0.72, which has acted as both prior support and now resistance throughout August. Price is sitting right at that level now, and the structure is telling me this is a retest of broken support from above — the classic setup for continuation lower.
I'm not chasing this short from mid-range. I'm watching for a clean rejection candle at this 0.71–0.72 zone before committing. The overall bias is bearish until price proves otherwise — every bounce so far has been sold, and this one looks like more of the same.
The live news context provided contains no relevant FIL/Filecoin-specific macro data, so I'm trading this purely on structure.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.7200
Rejection at 0.7200 with a close back below 0.7100 confirms bearish structure and continuation of the downtrend.
Invalidation
0.7300
Structure invalidated on a close above 0.7300 — that prints a higher high and breaks the sequence.
Target 1
0.6800
Prior consolidation low and reaction zone from late July/early August.
Target 2
0.6500
The spike low from the 30th, which is the most significant structural low on this chart.
Risk/Reward
(0.7100 – 0.6800) / (0.7300 – 0.7100) = 0.030 / 0.020 = 1.5:1
Resistance: 0.7200 / 0.7500
Support: 0.6800 / 0.6500
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.