AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price ripped from the 6.30 base all the way to 8.30+ in a near-vertical move, then reversed hard — printing lower highs from the 8.30 peak down through 7.75, 7.64, and now sitting at 7.54 with sellers in control of the structure. The move up was explosive but the reversal has been equally aggressive, and I'm not seeing any meaningful base forming yet. The nearest dense liquidation cluster sits right at 7.64 above, which is exactly where the last bounce attempt failed — that's a wall, not a target. Below me, the 7.23 cluster and then the 7.03 cluster are the obvious magnets, and with open interest at 2.01M and longs paying shorts at 0.0185% per 8h, the crowded long side is vulnerable to exactly the kind of flush that hits those clusters. I'm not buying this dip — I'm watching for a dead-cat bounce into 7.64 resistance to confirm the next leg down.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
7.64
Rejection at the 7.64 dense liquidation cluster with a close back below 7.55 confirms bearish continuation — that level has already repelled price once and is the dominant resistance on this timeframe.
Invalidation
7.78
Structure invalidated on a close above 7.78, which clears the 7.64 cluster and opens the door back toward 8.04.
Target 1
7.23
Dense liquidation cluster — natural magnet and prior intraday swing low area.
Target 2
7.03
Dense liquidation cluster — where the bulk of leveraged long stops are stacked from the breakout base.
Risk/Reward
(7.55 − 7.23) / (7.78 − 7.55) = 0.32 / 0.23 = 1.4:1
Resistance: 7.64 / 7.78
Support: 7.23 / 7.03
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.