XRP · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price peaked near 1.19 around the 21st-22nd and has been printing lower highs and lower lows ever since — that's a clean downtrend structure on the right side of this chart. Current price at 1.0644 is grinding along the lower end of the range, just above the 1.0500-1.0550 support zone that's held as the floor across the mid-month lows. The news context adds an interesting wrinkle: EverSource's XRP ETF disclosure and South Korean retail volume running nearly 4x Bitcoin's are both demand signals, and price is technically up 2.57% in 24 hours per the headlines — but the 30m chart I'm looking at shows price trading below its moving averages and still within bearish structure. I'm not chasing the news-driven bounce here. I want to see price actually reclaim 1.0800 with conviction before I flip bullish, because right now every bounce since the 22nd has been sold hard.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.0800
Rejection at 1.0800 with a close back below 1.0700 confirms bearish continuation — that level has acted as resistance on multiple attempts since the 27th and aligns with the most recent lower high structure.
Invalidation
1.0950
Structure invalidated above 1.0950 — a close there breaks the sequence of lower highs and puts the 1.10 zone back in play.
Target 1
1.0550
The mid-month swing low that's been tested and held, next structural floor.
Target 2
1.0450
Extended target, the deeper swing low visible on the left side around the 12th-13th.
Risk/Reward
(1.0700 - 1.0550) / (1.0950 - 1.0700) = 0.150 / 0.250 = 0.6:1 — R/R is marginal here at mid-range, so I'm sizing down and only taking this if the 1.0800 rejection is clean with a clear bearish candle close
Resistance: 1.0800 / 1.0950
Support: 1.0550 / 1.0450
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.