SOL · 1H · DOWNTREND
Both targets from the October 13th read — 102.80 and 98.23 — are on the record as reached, and the October 24th conditional short never triggered because price never rallied back to the 106.50–107.50 zone. What happened instead was a straight continuation lower: price has now traded down to 92.34 on this leg, and is sitting at 95.72 with the daily trend still printing lower highs and lower lows. This is not a bounce I trust — it's a dead-cat move inside an intact downtrend, and the dense liquidation clusters below at 92.93 and 90.24 are still unresolved magnets. I'm not chasing a short from here after a 10-point flush, but I'm not buying it either. The only setup I'd take is a rally back into resistance where I can short the rejection with structure behind it.
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
98.00
On a rally to the 98.00–100.00 zone, a 1H close back below 97.84 confirms the rejection — that level sits at the dense liquidation cluster above and is the natural lid for any dead-cat move off this flush.
Invalidation
104.40
1H close above 104.40 — clears the next dense cluster above and reclaims meaningful structure, which would make this a deeper recovery rather than a rejection.
Target 1
92.93
Dense liquidation cluster just below the recent low, structural magnet.
Target 2
90.24
Next dense cluster below, valid only if 92.93 gives way on a close.
Risk/Reward
(97.84 − 92.93) / (104.40 − 97.84) = 4.91 / 6.56 = 0.7:1
Resistance: 97.84 / 100.00 / 104.40
Support: 92.93 / 90.24
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.