SOL · 1H · DOWNTREND

The short from my October 13th read triggered cleanly — confirmed on a 1H close below 106.40, hit Target 1 at 102.80, and that target is now on the record as reached. Target 2 at 98.23 was never touched. Price is currently sitting at 102.25, essentially right at where that completed target landed, so I'm not carrying anything forward — the move is done and I'm starting clean from here.

What I see now is a downtrend that has run a long way without a clean pullback setup in either direction. From the swing high near 125 on this chart, SOL has printed a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and the most recent leg from 109 area down to the low near 100.43 is the latest step in that staircase. Price is sitting near the bottom of that flush, the daily structure is sideways per the higher-timeframe read, and the news backdrop adds weight — 64% off prior highs with institutional sellers (the ~1M SOL sale noted in the headlines) still overhang this market. The negative funding is notable: shorts are paying longs, meaning the short side is crowded. That doesn't flip my bias, but it does tell me a squeeze toward the 107.50 liquidation cluster above is a real risk if price catches a bid here. I'm not chasing a short into a crowded trade at the low of the range — I'd rather let price come back up into supply and short the rejection.

The dense cluster at 100.90 just below is the immediate magnet if sellers stay in control. Above, 107.50 is the first dense cluster and the level where I'd want to see rejection before considering a fresh short. There's no clean long setup either — a bounce from the current level has no structural anchor unless price reclaims something meaningful, and bouncing off a flush low into a downtrend is not a trade I'd take without confirmation.