SEI · 1H · DOWNTREND

The short from my October 13th read hit its first target at 0.0599 and has been grinding lower ever since — price is now at 0.05782, printing fresh lows on this window and maintaining a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows all the way from the 0.0880 peak. The second target at 0.0560 was never reached, and price is still trending in that direction. The daily structure is sideways per the higher timeframe, so this downtrend is a move within a larger range rather than a clean directional conviction play — but the 1H structure is unambiguously bearish, and there's no evidence of a base forming at the right edge of this chart.

What I'm not doing here is chasing fresh shorts at 0.05782. Price has traveled a long way from any clean entry point, and the nearest dense liquidation cluster below sits at 0.0561 — barely 17 ticks away. The risk/reward on a new short initiated right here is poor, and the earnings date on November 4th (12 days out) means any structural move I take now has to resolve cleanly before that print or I'm holding through event risk that routinely jumps through technical levels. A setup worth taking needs a bounce first.

The derivatives confirm the crowded structure: funding is positive at 0.0100% per 8h, meaning longs are paying — that's not extreme, but it tells me there's still a residual long bias out there getting squeezed into these lows. Dense liquidation clusters sit at 0.0595 and 0.0633 above, acting as natural caps on any bounce. Below, the dense cluster at 0.0561 is the near magnet, with 0.0535 as the next structural objective.

I'm waiting for price to bounce into the 0.0595 region before I have anything actionable. A rally there, followed by a rejection close, gives me a two-step short with defined risk against the cluster overhead.