SEI · 1H · DOWNTREND

My previous long from the 0.0650–0.0667 flush zone hit Target 1 at 0.0732 — that read is completed. Price never made it to Target 2 at 0.0767: it stalled below the dense cluster at 0.0733, reversed, and has ground back down to 0.0707. That long is fully spent and I'm starting clean.

Structure on this 1H chart is still a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the 0.0866 swing top. Every bounce has been sold, the EMA 9/20 cluster at 0.0712–0.0715 is falling directly overhead, and the EMA 50 at 0.0722 and EMA 200 at 0.0742 are stacked above that — price is beneath all four MAs with no reclaim. The daily trend is up, so this is a pullback inside a larger uptrend, but the 1H structure has not yet printed a higher low I can key a long off. Earnings are 30 days out, well clear of any near-term setup.

The derivatives picture is the critical input here: a dense liquidation cluster sits at 0.0703, just below current price, and another at 0.0648. That 0.0703 cluster is the most likely sweep target before any real bounce — longs are paying shorts at 0.0100% per 8h, the crowd is still long, and that cluster is sitting right beneath price like a trap door. The analyst upgrade with a 2027 target and the operational improvements from recent acquisitions support the daily bull case, but that is not a 1H entry thesis.

Running the R/R honestly: if confirmation is the reclaim of 0.0710 after a sweep of 0.0703, invalidation is a close below 0.0648, the distance to invalidation is 0.0062. The 1.2x minimum requires Target 1 to sit at least 0.0074 above confirmation — that puts the minimum target at 0.0784. The dense cluster at 0.0733 and the level at 0.0764 both fall inside that minimum, so they are WAYPOINTS, not targets. The next structural objective with enough distance is the 0.0790 cluster visible in the liquidation data. That is where Target 1 lives.