SEI · 1H · DOWNTREND
The structure on this chart is unambiguous — SEI has been making lower highs and lower lows since mid-July, dropping from the 0.0500 area all the way into the 0.0390s. The most recent price action shows a bounce off the 0.0390–0.0394 zone back up to current price around 0.0414, but that bounce is happening directly into what was prior support turned resistance, and the overall trend context is firmly bearish. Every significant rally attempt across this entire chart has been sold into — there's no structural reason to believe this one is different. I'm not interested in chasing the bounce here mid-range; the structure belongs to the bears until proven otherwise.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.0420
Rejection at the 0.0420 resistance zone (dense liquidation cluster above) with a close back below 0.0414 confirms bearish continuation — price touching that cluster, failing to hold, and rolling back over is exactly the setup I'm watching for.
Invalidation
0.0432
A clean close above 0.0432 (the most recent swing high on the bounce leg) — that reclaims enough structure to invalidate the short thesis.
Target 1
0.0394
The dense liquidation cluster just below, which also marks the recent swing low zone where the bounce originated; expect price to stall or briefly pause here as that cluster gets swept.
Target 2
0.0371
Next dense liquidation cluster below, aligning with the deeper low printed around August 2–3; this is the real target if the downtrend resumes with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(0.0420 − 0.0394) / (0.0432 − 0.0420) = 0.0026 / 0.0012 ≈ 2.2:1
Resistance: 0.0420 / 0.0432
Support: 0.0394 / 0.0371
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.