SEI · 1H · DOWNTREND
My read here is straightforward — SEI peaked near 0.06000 in late June and has been printing a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows ever since. Every rally attempt, whether it was the bounce to 0.05150 around July 7–10 or the grind up to 0.04800 around July 19, got sold hard. Price is now sitting at 0.04590, which is essentially a multi-week low and right at the floor of this entire range. The structure is bearish, the bounces are getting shallower, and the most recent leg down from 0.04820 to current has been clean with no meaningful support reclaimed.
I'm not long here. Mid-range entries in a downtrend give me poor R/R, and price sitting at lows with no base formation means there's nothing structural to lean against for a long. I'm waiting to see if price loses the 0.04550 zone and breaks to new lows — that's my trigger for the short continuation. If it bounces first, I'm watching whether sellers reassert at the 0.04750–0.04800 rejection zone before committing.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.04550
Closing below 0.04550 confirms bearish continuation — price breaks the current low with momentum, no recovery attempt.
Invalidation
0.04820
Structure invalidated on a close back above 0.04820 (last swing high).
Target 1
0.04450
Next visible structural support from prior consolidation.
Target 2
0.04350
Extended downside, measured move from the most recent distribution range.
Risk/Reward
(0.04550 - 0.04450) / (0.04820 - 0.04550) = 0.0010 / 0.0027 ≈ 0.4:1 raw, but entry tightens post-confirmation — practical R/R closer to 1.5:1 using a close back above 0.04650 as the live stop
Resistance: 0.04800 / 0.05100
Support: 0.04550 / 0.04350
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.