NEAR · 1H · DOWNTREND
The long from my Nov 4 read triggered cleanly — the 4.05 close confirmed it — but price never reached 4.45 and has since collapsed through 3.83, which was the invalidation on touch. That read is stopped out. The structure on this 1H chart is now unambiguously bearish: price peaked around 3.80 on Nov 11, rolled over hard with all four EMAs stacking bearishly (9 below 20 below 50 below 200), and has broken down through the 3.50 area with momentum. The daily trend is down, this 1H is aligned with it, and every bounce is running into descending EMAs. Current price is 3.491, sitting just below the 3.50 round number and right on top of a dense liquidation cluster at 3.48. That cluster just below is thinning out as price sweeps through it — the next dense clusters below are 3.32 and 3.27, and those are where I'm targeting.
I'm not chasing this breakdown at current price — the 3.48 cluster is already being swept and I'd be selling into spent momentum. What I want is a bounce into the descending EMA 9/20 cluster (around 3.52–3.57 and falling) for a rejection entry. The structure is clean enough that I'm publishing the scenario now.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
3.52
On a rally into the 3.52–3.57 zone, a 1H close back below 3.50 confirms the rejection and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
3.62
On a touch — the dense liquidation cluster above; through that level the EMA 50 is also sitting and the breakdown structure breaks down with it.
Target 1
3.32
Dense liquidation cluster below; first structural magnet and natural trim level.
Target 2
3.27
Next dense cluster; extended target if 3.32 clears with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(3.50 – 3.32) / (3.62 – 3.50) = 0.18 / 0.12 = 1.5:1
Resistance: 3.57 (descending EMA 20/50 cluster, moving) / 3.62 (dense liquidation cluster)
Support: 3.32 (dense liquidation cluster) / 3.27 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.