LINK · 1H · DOWNTREND
The confirmation zone from my last two reads — 10.60–10.75 — was never touched, and price has continued grinding lower without giving me the rally I was waiting for. That setup is still live in structure, but the zone is now further away with price at 10.112, so I need to reassess where the trigger sits today. The downtrend is unambiguous: lower highs and lower lows from the mid-October peak near 13.80 all the way to current price, the daily trend confirms it, and every bounce on this chart has rolled over before making a new high. The technical commentary flagging 10.07 as the key support level in focus aligns with what I see — price is pressing into that zone right now with no clean base forming beneath it.
The previous confirmation zone has drifted further above price, but the thesis hasn't changed — I'm still looking for a rally into the EMA cluster to short the rejection. The bounce-and-reject structure is the only entry I trust in this trend; fading the current level with price already at the lows gives me nothing to key off and terrible R/R against the dense liquidation cluster sitting at 9.86 directly below.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
10.55
On a rally to the 10.55–10.65 zone (descending EMA convergence and the dense liquidation cluster above at 10.63), a 1H close back below 10.52 confirms rejection and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
10.92
Structure invalidated above 10.92 — a 1H close above the descending EMA 200's current path breaks the rejection thesis.
Target 1
9.86
Dense liquidation cluster directly below; primary magnet and where I'd look to reduce.
Target 2
9.62
Next dense cluster below; full leg if selling pressure extends.
Risk/Reward
(10.52 − 9.86) / (10.92 − 10.52) = 0.66 / 0.40 = 1.7:1
Resistance: 10.63 (dense liquidation cluster) / 10.92 (descending EMA 200 path)
Support: 9.86 (dense liquidation cluster) / 9.62 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.