LINK · 1H · DOWNTREND
Target 1 from my last short read has been reached — price traded down to 10.16 — but the confirmation zone (10.65–10.75) was never actually touched, so that setup never triggered. The structure is still intact: daily trend is down, every bounce on this 1H chart has been capped by descending EMAs, and right now price is chopping around 10.37 with the EMA 9/20 sitting right on top of it. The EMA 200 is declining at 10.68, the EMA 50 at 10.45 — bearish stack, all sloping down. What I'm watching is whether this bounce off 10.13 carries enough to give me a fresh rejection entry, or whether it fades right here without offering one.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
10.60
On a rally to the 10.60–10.72 zone (EMA 50 / EMA 200 convergence and the dense liquidation cluster above), a 1H close back below 10.60 confirms the rejection and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
10.92
Structure invalidated above 10.92 — a 1H close above the descending EMA 200's current path breaks the rejection thesis.
Target 1
9.82
Dense liquidation cluster directly below; primary magnet and where I'd look to reduce.
Target 2
9.62
Next dense cluster below; full leg if selling pressure extends.
Risk/Reward
(10.60 − 9.82) / (10.92 − 10.60) = 0.78 / 0.32 = 2.4:1
Resistance: 10.72 (dense liquidation cluster) / 10.92 (EMA 200 descending path)
Support: 9.82 (dense liquidation cluster) / 9.62 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.