LINK · 1H · SIDEWAYS
The short from my September reads ran exactly as structured — both targets hit, the move is fully spent. Price has since recovered from the 10.61 low, climbed back through 14.00, and is now coiling just under 14.30 with all four EMAs compressed into a tight cluster between 14.13 and 14.24. The Sep 28 CCIP Pro launch drove the spike visible on this chart — that catalyst is priced in and the news fuel is spent. I'm not taking a side here. Price is mid-range between the 14.50 area swing high and 13.90 area support, EMAs are flat and tangled, and funding at +0.010% per 8h tells me longs are paying a small premium — not extreme, but enough to make blind longs less appealing. There's a dense liquidation cluster sitting at 14.26, just above current price, which acts as a near-term magnet and a draw that caps the setup's R/R from here. I want to see a resolved breakout or a clean pullback to support before I commit to either side.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
14.50
Closing above 14.50 on a 1H candle clears the swing high visible on this chart and confirms bullish structure resuming; the 14.26 liquidation cluster gets swept through, adding fuel to the move.
Invalidation
13.90
Structure invalidated below 13.90 — that level has acted as the base of this recent consolidation range.
Target 1
15.38
Dense liquidation cluster above; that is where a move most likely pauses and where I'd look to reduce.
Target 2
15.69
The next dense liquidation cluster above that; measured extension of the base aligns with it.
Risk/Reward
(15.38 − 14.50) / (14.50 − 13.90) = 0.88 / 0.60 = 1.5:1
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
14.45
Rejection at the 14.45–14.50 area with a 1H close back below 14.10 confirms the lower high is forming and the range is capping; EMA cluster being lost on the close seals it.
Invalidation
14.55
Structure invalidated above 14.55 — a close above that breaks the cap entirely.
Target 1
13.50
Prior consolidation support visible in the early October base.
Target 2
13.03
Liquidation cluster below; counter-trend against the daily uptrend so I hold this to a higher bar.
Risk/Reward
(14.10 − 13.50) / (14.55 − 14.10) = 0.60 / 0.45 = 1.3:1
Confidence
LOW — counter-trend against the daily uptrend; only valid if the rejection at the range high is clean and confirmed
Resistance: 14.26 (dense liquidation) / 14.50 (swing high)
Support: 13.90 (range base) / 13.03 (liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.