FIL · 1H · DOWNTREND
Both of my prior shorts ran the full distance — Target 2 hit at 0.7129 on the November 11 read, and before that at 0.6774 on the November 10 read. That's two completed moves in the same direction, and now price is at 0.6459, sitting at the lowest point visible on this chart after a sharp accelerating flush on elevated volume. All four EMAs are stacked bearishly above price — 9 at 0.6642, 20 at 0.6799, 50 at 0.7044, 200 at 0.7440 — and declining. The daily trend is down with lower highs and lower lows throughout. I'm not fading this — the structure is unambiguously bearish — but I'm also not chasing into an extended vertical drop that just printed off a capitulation-looking candle. The liquidation cluster at 0.6527 above is dense and close; that's the natural relief target for any bounce, and it's also the zone I want to fade if price gives me the rejection.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.6520
On a rally to the 0.6520–0.6530 zone (dense liquidation cluster above), a 1H close back below 0.6500 confirms the rejection and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
0.6668
1H close above 0.6668 — clearing the next dense cluster above shifts near-term structure and voids the short thesis.
Target 1
0.6098
Dense liquidation cluster below, the structural magnet on continuation.
Target 2
0.6098
N/a — no visible structure below 0.6098 on this chart; that cluster is the full objective.
Risk/Reward
(0.6500 − 0.6098) / (0.6668 − 0.6500) = 0.0402 / 0.0168 = 2.4:1
Resistance: 0.6527 (dense liquidation cluster, rally target and fade zone) / 0.6668 (dense liquidation cluster, invalidation zone)
Support: 0.6367 (liquidation cluster below) / 0.6098 (dense liquidation cluster, Target 1)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.