FIL · 1H · DOWNTREND

My short thesis from the November 6 read hit both targets — 0.7716 and 0.7470 both reached, with price slicing all the way to 0.7189 before bouncing. That's a completed move and I'm starting clean. What I'm looking at now is a sharp recovery candle off that 0.7189 low, with price currently at 0.7482, sitting just below a dense liquidation cluster at 0.7437 that it just traded through on the bounce. The daily trend is still down — lower highs, lower lows — and all four EMAs are stacked bearishly above price. The natural read here is fade the bounce, not chase it long.

The bounce is real but it's running into structural resistance fast. The EMA 9 is at 0.7537, EMA 20 at 0.7590, and that 0.7437 liquidation cluster just got swept — the rally is burning fuel rather than building a base. Funding is modestly long-biased (0.0091% per 8h), which means the squeeze risk is mild rather than extreme, but longs are paying — no crowd squeeze to worry about on the short side. A rally back into the 0.75–0.76 zone where the short EMAs converge would be the entry I want: let price rip into that MA cluster, then fade the rejection.