FET · 1H · DOWNTREND

The short from my last read is still the live scenario — price rallied into the 0.1889–0.1903 zone as required, touching 0.1939 at the high, but never delivered a 1H close back below 0.1868, so the two-step confirmation was never met and the setup remains untriggered. Now price is sitting at 0.1878, right in the middle of that same zone, with the MA stack still fully bearish and the EMA 200 well above at around 0.20. The daily trend is sideways, which caps my confidence on a fresh short but doesn't change the structure: every recovery attempt from the lows has failed to print a higher high, and each of those highs has been lower than the last. The downtrend on the 1H is intact until the swing high at 0.2090 is reclaimed.

The earnings print lands October 30 — ten days out, roughly seven trading sessions. That event dominates anything I'd want to run into the end of the month: earnings gaps slice through every technical level, so I'm treating this as a short window where any setup needs to trigger and resolve well before that date to carry real conviction. Running a short into October 30 without it being already well into profit carries event risk I'm not interested in.

Funding is a mild 0.0085% per 8h — longs paying shorts, nothing extreme, no squeeze threat either way. Open interest at $9.61M is moderate. The liquidation map is the most useful input here: there's a dense cluster just above at 0.1913, then two more at 0.2070 and 0.2086, and dense clusters below at 0.1722 and 0.1658. Price is sandwiched between the 0.1913 cluster above and the 0.1722 cluster below — a roughly 190-pip range with fuel on both sides.

Given where price is right now — already inside the resistance zone, no confirmed close — the two-step structure from my last read is still the cleanest frame. I'm not shorting the middle of that zone cold; I want the rally to exhaust into 0.1913 resistance and then give me the close below 0.1868 to confirm the rejection. That's the only entry I trust here.