FET · 1H · DOWNTREND

Price rolled over hard from the 0.21 area on Oct 13, made a failed recovery attempt to 0.2090, then resumed lower and has spent the past 48 hours grinding down toward the 0.1870s. Every MA is stacked bearishly — EMA 9 below EMA 20 below EMA 50 below EMA 200 — and the EMA 200 is sitting around 0.2026, well above price. The daily structure is sideways, so this 1H downtrend is playing out inside a larger range, but the lower-timeframe trend is clearly bear. I'm not fighting that stack.

The problem with taking a fresh short here is positioning: I'm sitting right at the 0.1868 dense liquidation cluster below — that cluster is already at price, not beneath it. A short into an already-tagged cluster with no fresh breakdown is a low-quality entry. On the long side, the EMA 9 and EMA 20 are just above at 0.1889 and 0.1903, and the EMA 50 is declining toward 0.1934 — those are live resistance levels rolling down into price. Any bounce into that cluster of MAs is likely to fail.

With earnings in 11 days (Oct 30), any setup I take needs to be resolved well before that print. That timeframe actually supports a short-term setup IF the structure gives me one — a clean rejection at the declining MAs into the next dense liquidation cluster below at 0.1733 is doable inside a week. The two-step structure is what I'm after: let price bounce into the declining EMA 9/20 zone around 0.1889–0.1903, then wait for a 1H close back below 0.1868 to confirm the rejection and reinstate the downtrend pressure. That keeps me on the right side of the 1H structure, aligned with the MA stack, and targeting the 0.1733 dense cluster before the earnings noise takes over.