ETH · 1H · DOWNTREND
Both targets from my previous read — 2,077 and 2,009 — have been reached. That's a completed move, not a continuation. Price is now at 2,067, sitting in the zone between those two spent targets, and the daily structure remains a clean downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. I'm not chasing this short from here — the move already delivered what I was looking for, and re-entering at the low with no fresh structure beneath me is exactly the kind of trade I avoid.
The setup I want is a dead-cat bounce back into resistance, then a rejection. The 2,155 liquidation cluster overhead is the magnet — that's where stops are piled and where sellers will be waiting. Funding is modestly positive (longs paying shorts at 0.0100% per 8h), which tells me the long-side crowd hasn't been fully flushed despite the move to 2,006. That residual long bias makes the bounce-and-reject scenario more credible — there are still longs to squeeze on the way up, and then to liquidate on the way back down.
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
2,140
On a rally to 2,140–2,155 (the dense liquidation cluster above), a 1H close back below 2,130 confirms the rejection.
Invalidation
2,210
1H close above 2,210 — that reclaims the prior breakdown zone and negates the rejection thesis.
Target 1
2,005
(dense liquidation cluster below — the natural structural pause).
Target 2
1,954
(next swing objective below, toward the 1,901 liquidation zone).
Risk/Reward
(2,130 – 2,005) / (2,210 – 2,130) = 125 / 80 = 1.6:1
Resistance: 2,155 / 2,210
Support: 2,005 / 1,901
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.