ETH · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short setup I've been carrying since Friday never triggered — price never reached the 2,290–2,310 zone, so the two-step confirmation never fired. What happened instead is that price broke down hard through the 2,183 support I had marked, tagged a low around 2,060, and is now sitting at 2,116. The setup didn't trigger and the zone it needed is now far overhead, so I'm starting clean from here.
The structure on this 30-minute view (read as 1H context) is a clear waterfall — lower highs and lower lows from the 2,460s all the way to current price, with the most recent leg a sharp drop from ~2,240 through 2,180 and into the 2,060–2,100 area. Daily trend is down, the prior two-step short never activated, and price is now sitting in the middle of a fresh leg lower. The dense liquidation cluster at 2,077 sits just below, and 2,009 beneath that — both are magnets on the downside. Above price, the 2,175 cluster is the first meaningful overhead, then 2,284 is the next wall.
Funding is a modest positive (longs paying at 0.0077% per 8h) — not an extreme, but it means longs are slightly crowded at a level where structure is broken. That's a mild tailwind for the short side, not a squeeze signal. With the daily trend down and no structural base forming here yet, I'm not looking to buy this. The honest setup is a dead-cat bounce into overhead resistance and then a fresh short entry.
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
2,170
On a rally to 2,170–2,175 (the dense liquidation cluster above), a 1H close back below 2,155 confirms the rejection.
Invalidation
2,210
1H close above 2,210 — that reclaims the prior breakdown zone and negates the rejection thesis.
Target 1
2,077
(dense liquidation cluster, the natural pause zone).
Target 2
2,009
(next dense cluster below).
Risk/Reward
(2,155 – 2,077) / (2,210 – 2,155) = 78 / 55 = 1.4:1
Resistance: 2,175 / 2,240
Support: 2,077 / 2,009
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.