ETH · 1H · DOWNTREND

Price has been in a sustained downtrend from ~2,150 in late May, printing lower highs and lower lows all the way down to the ~1,540 area before staging a recovery bounce to ~1,860. That recovery has since rolled over, and price is now grinding back down toward the 1,675–1,690 zone — exactly where the prior consolidation base sat in early-to-mid June. The structure is telling me sellers are still in control on the macro timeframe of this chart, with each rally attempt failing at lower highs. Current price at 1,692 is sitting right on top of the prior congestion zone around 1,675, which is the line in the sand. I'm not chasing a short here — price is already compressed into support and mid-range after a significant leg down from the 1,860 high. The smarter play is to wait for a retest of the overhead resistance cluster around 1,725–1,750 and fade that if it holds. One thing I can't ignore: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 23 — extreme fear — and price is sitting on a multi-week consolidation support zone near 1,675. That's a meaningful contrarian signal. Extreme fear readings at structural support historically precede at least a tactical bounce, so I'm not going to be aggressive on the short side right here. If anything, 1,675 holding gives me a long scalp setup back toward 1,725, with the broader downtrend bias resuming if 1,725–1,750 rejects.

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Setup: LONG (conditional — entry at support, conditional on 1,675 holding)

- Entry: 1,678

- Stop Loss: 1,658

- Take Profit 1: 1,725

- Take Profit 2: 1,755

- Risk/Reward: 2.4:1

- Confidence: MEDIUM

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