ETH · 1H · DOWNTREND

The dominant structure from May 21 onward is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows — price fell from above 2,150 all the way down to the ~1,540 spike low in early June, bounced hard into the 1,850 zone, then rolled over again and is now retesting the ~1,720–1,730 area that marked the prior consolidation floor before the June 4 flush. That level is now acting as resistance, and price is sitting right on it — the bounce from 1,540 failed to produce a new high above 1,860, and this latest push into 1,726 is being rejected in real time. My read is the trend is still down, and this retest of the prior breakdown zone is a textbook short opportunity. The one thing I'm not ignoring is the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 23 — extreme fear — which historically marks near-bottom conditions and raises the probability of a counter-trend bounce or full reversal. That keeps me from pressing short with maximum size, but the chart structure hasn't flipped bullish yet, so I'm respecting the trend until it breaks.

Setup: SHORT

- Entry: 1,726 (at market — price is currently rejecting this resistance level in real time)

- Stop Loss: 1,765 (above the local swing high from June 18 and the prior resistance cluster)

- Take Profit 1: 1,640 (prior consolidation floor and reaction zone from early June recovery)

- Take Profit 2: 1,575 (just above the spike low support zone from June 4–5)

- Risk/Reward: 2.2:1

- Confidence: MEDIUM (downtrend structure is clear, but extreme fear reading at 23 introduces real reversal risk — I'm not pressing this aggressively)