DOT · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read did exactly what the structure called for — confirmation triggered on October 31st, both targets hit, and price has since pushed all the way down to 0.886 before bouncing. That's a completed move. I'm not chasing it. What I'm looking at now is a choppy recovery from that low, with price sitting at 0.926 and all four EMAs stacked bearishly above — the 9 and 20 at 0.9239–0.9257, the 50 at 0.9333, the 200 at 0.9420. Every rally attempt has been sold. The daily trend is down, lower highs and lower lows are the structure, and I'm not interested in a long here — a counter-trend trade into that EMA wall with no base beneath it doesn't pass my own bar. The honest setup is a rally into the EMA cluster, then a rejection that confirms the bearish structure is still in control.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.9330
On a rally to the 0.9330–0.9420 zone (where the 50 and 200 EMAs are converging), a 1H close back below 0.9280 confirms the rejection.
Invalidation
0.9481
1H close above 0.9481 — that's the dense liquidation cluster above price, and a close through it breaks the lower-high sequence from the right side of this chart.
Target 1
0.8769
Dense liquidation cluster below, first major magnet on the way down.
Target 2
0.8695
Next cluster, sits just above the deeper dense band at 0.8470.
Risk/Reward
(0.9280 − 0.8769) / (0.9481 − 0.9280) = 0.0511 / 0.0201 ≈ 2.5:1
Resistance: 0.9333–0.9420 (EMA 50/200 cluster, rising into price) / 0.9481 (dense liquidation cluster)
Support: 0.8769 / 0.8470 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.