DOT · 1H · SIDEWAYS
The previous long was stopped out — confirmation at 1.250 never printed, and price broke below the 1.180 invalidation before cascading to a low around 1.145 visible on this chart. That failure is noted. What I'm looking at now is a sharp V-recovery off that 1.145 low, with price already at 1.216 and climbing steeply through the short EMAs — the EMA 9 at 1.1908, EMA 20 at 1.1867, and EMA 50 at 1.1989 are all being sliced through to the upside in the current candle. The EMA 200 at 1.1792 is already below price and acting as a floor. The dashed horizontal at 1.22 is the level being tested right now — that was prior consolidation support from Sep 25–27 that broke down and is now being reclaimed. The daily trend is UP, so the bias is with the bulls, but I'm not chasing this vertical candle. The liquidation cluster at 1.21 just below price is dense and that cluster has almost certainly been swept already given price is printing 1.216 — but I want to see this level hold on any immediate retest before committing.
I'm not touching this at the current candle — too extended, too vertical, no clean entry. But here's what each resolution looks like if price gives me a structure to work with:
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.195
Price pulls back into the 1.195–1.205 zone (the rising EMA 9/20 cluster, around 1.19 today, and the reclaimed 1.200 pivot), holds there with a bullish close, and does not print a lower low beneath 1.180 — that hold confirms the breakout above 1.22 is real and the pullback is a re-entry, not a rollover.
Invalidation
1.180
Close below 1.180 — that breaks the reclaimed structure and puts the 1.145 low back in play.
Target 1
1.260
The resistance shelf from Sep 27 where price consolidated before the final breakdown; dense overhead supply and the first structural objective.
Target 2
1.290
The dense liquidation cluster just below the 1.300 swing high visible at the top of this chart; that's where I'd expect the move to pause.
Risk/Reward
(1.260 - 1.200) / (1.200 - 1.180) = 3.0:1
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
1.260
Rejection at 1.260 resistance with a close back below 1.230 and the short EMAs turning down — that prints a lower high in the post-1.145 bounce and confirms the recovery was a dead-cat.
Invalidation
1.290
Close above 1.290 — reclaiming that level with momentum takes the dense cluster at 1.280 and puts the prior highs in play; I'm not short above there.
Target 1
1.160
The next dense liquidation cluster below, between the 1.145 low and 1.180.
Target 2
1.120
The dense cluster at 1.12 visible in the liquidation map.
Risk/Reward
(1.230 - 1.160) / (1.290 - 1.230) = 1.2:1
Confidence
LOW — the daily trend is UP, this is counter-trend, and I'd only take it with a very clean rejection at 1.260 with volume
Resistance: 1.260 / 1.290
Support: 1.200 / 1.180
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.