BTC · 1H · DOWNTREND

The macro structure here is clear — BTC peaked around $74,000 late May, sold off hard into the $57,000–$58,000 range, bounced, and has been making lower highs ever since. The most recent swing high was ~$65,000, followed by another leg down that's now sitting price at $60,100. Every rally attempt has been sold, and the current price is sitting right at the $60,000 psychological level — a zone that's been contested multiple times across this chart and is now acting as thin air between the recent $57,500–$58,000 low and the $61,500–$62,000 overhead supply. The only real counter-argument I have to fading this bounce is the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 18 — Extreme Fear — which historically marks near-bottom conditions and raises the probability of a reactive bounce or reversal. Bitdeer liquidating 100% of weekly mined BTC is a miner-selling overhang that confirms the bearish lean, but at 18 on the Fear & Greed scale, I'm not chasing shorts into this area — I'm waiting for structure to clarify, which makes this a NEUTRAL read at current price.

Setup: LONG (conditional)

- Entry: $58,200 (conditional on price pulling back to the prior low zone and showing a hold/rejection wick)

- Stop Loss: $57,200

- Take Profit 1: $61,500

- Take Profit 2: $63,000

- Risk/Reward: 3.3:1

- Confidence: MEDIUM

Setup: SHORT (conditional)

- Entry: $62,000 (conditional on a rally into overhead supply with a rejection candle on the 1H)

- Stop Loss: $63,200

- Take Profit 1: $59,500

- Take Profit 2: $58,000

- Risk/Reward: 2.1:1

- Confidence: MEDIUM